I’ll start off by saying this clearly: regardless of the players involved, I do not want to make this trade.

Let’s be clear: Juan Soto is a fantastic batter. Without a doubt. Among the baseball’s top five batters. He only turned 25 a month ago, so he’s not even that old yet. This is a person that any team would want, right?

The issue is that only a single year’s worth of performance is promised to whoever trades for him. In addition, even if the Cubs were to trade for Soto, there is no assurance that he would stay in the team until 2024. For this reason, I believe it would be a mistake to give up a number of players. This probably applies to almost any team that trades for Soto: Why wouldn’t he want to take advantage of his potential to enter free agency in a year?

I talked with Josh about what the Padres would want for Soto, just like I did for the piece about the Dylan Cease trade that was posted here yesterday. The Padres most likely wouldn’t be interested in any of the Cubs’ young position players, such as Christopher Morel, in addition to receiving a sizable windfall. They’re positioned quite well in several of their defensive roles already.

The Cubs should and will refuse to give in to the Padres’ request for Cade Horton. Ben Brown is a clear front-runner. Even if Jackson Ferris isn’t near to the majors, I’d think that because Horton isn’t an option, they’re looking for someone with upside. After that, they would desire a majors student. Jordan Wicks would be requested, but the Cubs would probably refuse. Javier Assad might have to do for them.
Drew Smyly needs to be replaced, therefore the Cubs may be able to trade him to the Padres. That would just be the Cubs dumping salary; it won’t add to the value.