Why Justin Fields Should Be the Favourite……..
Analysis: Justin Fields is beginning to show signs of improvement, and the opportunity to get further picks is too excellent to pass up given the likelihood of failure with the first pick.
Bears supporters continue to engage in a heated dispute. It’s resulting in a virtual civil war.
Supporters of Justin Fields, who yelled for their quarterback to return during the regular-season finale, are on one side.
Conversely, there are individuals who have observed the passing strategies of Detroit, Minnesota, and now Jordan Love, who is leading Green Bay’s passing attack, and they are asking themselves, “What happened to the much-promised Bears passing game?” They desire Caleb Williams to be selected with the top choice in the 2024 NFL Draft. They believe Fields was ruined by his own failures or by those of his former offensive coordinator Luke Getsy and coach Matt Nagy.
Social media arguments have gotten to epic dimensions.
The key question is whether choosing Williams at No. 1 is worth it or if they maintain Fields and use all the additional picks they’ll receive with the first pick, they can win the North and the Super Bowl much sooner.
What Makes a QB Successful, Exactly?
Dave Kluge, a numbers guru on “X” this week, presented 30 years of statistics that indicates it makes sense to select a quarterback first overall since they are typically more “successful” than QBs selected at other slots. 4,000 yards, 70% completion percentage, 30+ touchdowns, and 80 or more starts were his criteria for success.
I don’t mean to offend, but perhaps decades of viewing this drivel is too much. I consider success as taking home the Super Bowl.
Who gives a damn about statistics, 80 starts, or Pro Bowls they don’t even play in anymore?
Many Bears supporters seen their team lose in the NFC or Super Bowl following a postseason victory. They haven’t witnessed 4,000 yards of passing, but if it happens without a Super Bowl victory, it would be analogous to the Golden State Warriors declaring that they were the best team in history after surpassing the Bulls’ record for single-season victories. Oh well, what counts is that the Bulls prevailed and the Warriors did not.
Would the Bears be willing to waste a shot for several players on the opposite side?
For teams, this decision regarding the number one pick occurs year, or at least annually when a quarterback is regarded as the clear choice among available players.
A review of the quarterbacks selected first overall in the past would indicate that it makes more sense to take the selections and trade down. By the time a decade, let alone a generation or more, passes, the game is played differently, so you don’t need to go back as far as Kluge’s stats went.
Even though all the scouts are impressed with Williams’ film, percentages indicate they won’t land their Super Bowl winner at No. 1. And trust me when I say that the movie does include Williams acting in some really absurd ways against some dubious opponents. Thus, joining that bandwagon is simple.
Super Bowl Winning Is Real Success.
However, history indicates that relying just on the quarterback to win a Super Bowl is too great of a gamble. With the extra picks, they can field so many talented players that, barring Fields, any one of several quarterbacks may win it for them.
Since Matthew Stafford entered the league in 2009, ten quarterbacks have been selected first overall. He is the final quarterback selected with the first overall pick who is still active in the league, making this a fair cutoff point.
Since then, nine additional quarterbacks—Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, and Bryce Young—have been selected as the first overall pick.
There has been one Super Bowl victory by Stafford, four Super Bowl appearances, and one MVP by Cam Newton among the ten No. 1 picks. As starters, they have played in 72 seasons and have an overall record of 447 wins, 434 defeats, and five ties.
With 19,897 completions in 31,368 attempts (63.4%), 229,342 yards with 1,438 touchdowns and 754 interceptions, they have a combined career passer rating of 89.92. Per each attempt, they have averaged 7.31 yards.
A little over.500 in wins and not nearly a 90 passer rating was the outcome for these top picks, the quarterbacks that everyone was vying for, and these were the quarterbacks that everyone wanted. Fields is already performing at those levels, and that too without a defense-oriented club. They supposedly have one now.
Since Stafford, a lot of quarterbacks have been selected in the draft without being selected first overall, and they have delivered greater results, more victories, Lombardi trophies, and MVPs.
Whether to Trade or Not to Trade.
Would it not be preferable to give up the pick and take a hefty payout in exchange to add players from the first three rounds to their squad over the course of the next two or three drafts, and maybe even get a valuable player at a different position?
At centre, defensive end, defensive tackle, wide receiver, and maybe safety, they have serious needs.
GM Ryan Poles was questioned about whether it was feasible to pick a quarterback in the draft and have them join Fields on the team during the postseason press conference.
Poles skirted the subject, claiming to be exploring all options. In actuality, you wouldn’t want Fields and the top choice in the draft on the same team. Of course it’s difficult. Particularly for Fields, it may cause a great deal of animosity in the quarterback room, if not the locker room.
Take a look at what happened in Green Bay, at least in the beginning, when Aaron Rodgers harboured resentment against the Packers for selecting Jordan Love in the draft. It was nothing personal against Love; in fact, based on what’s been proven thus far, the current Packers starter is more than capable of teaching Love a few things.
For a while, feelings were hurt needlessly, but gradually they passed as Rodgers briefly established his supremacy.
In the NFL, the quarterback selected first is expected to start right away, but that’s typically because the team that selects the quarterback is likely to be awful and won’t have a strong enough starter. Mayfield in 2018 was the last No. 1 who didn’t get started right away. A few weeks later he was admitted.
Williams wouldn’t be joining the awful Bears squad. They appear to be ascending.
It would make a bit more sense to start Fields and draft a backup quarterback later in the first round. If Fields were to suddenly discover the winning touch, which he hasn’t had, they could even trade the quarterback chosen this year or allow him to sit and develop like Love did in Green Bay. Fields has a backup available if he doesn’t get well.
Holding onto Fields would, at minimum, require sacrificing a second-round pick, as the majority of analysts believe they couldn’t acquire a first-round pick for Fields. On Chase Claypool, they wasted a second-round selection. To be sure Fields is the guy or not, they could afford to discard it.
If you maintain two first-round picks on the roster, money won’t be a problem—at least not until 2024. If the quarterback selected this year wasn’t the first pick, there wouldn’t be as much of a problem because the first pick does come with a slightly higher financial consideration.
Given how ineffective the Bears have been in the past at selecting quarterbacks, wouldn’t it be wiser to just begin hoarding first-round picks until one eventually stands out?
After 2024, they could always trade Fields if they don’t think he’s improved enough to be worth keeping. Naturally, he won’t receive much in return since, after four years to establish himself, he will have completed the cheaper years of his deal.
The value of picking Williams stems from the cap space consideration. They can afford to deploy a quarterback selected first overall this year and continue to assemble the roster for three to four more years.
However, given their large stack of cap money, three or four more picks, perhaps a player, and a few more free agents this year, they might not need to continue growing.
For all of these reasons, the Bears conducted interviews with Kliff Kingsbury, a coach who has a close relationship with Williams, to fill the position of offensive coordinator. They must be completely persuaded of Williams.
The trip needed to be as much about the player as it was about the coaching role.
Consider everything to be a minor.
Nonetheless, there’s still plenty of time for Williams’ purported genius to triumph.
Think about all of this while you publish derogatory comments on social media for the opposition.
