Given that Shohei Ohtani has officially signed and that the top free agent logjam is likely to break, I thought I’d share my thoughts on the likelihood of Chapman joining the Cubs.
As a third baseman, Chapman has a lot of positive traits. He has won four Gold Gloves, to start with. It paid off, as Jed Hoyer and his executive office prioritised defence over the previous summer. In 2023, the Cubs had three Gold Glove winners for the first time in team history. Third base would be strengthened by having a Gold Glove winner there.
Naturally, there are certain restrictions. Even though Chapman hit.240/.330/.424 (122-for-509) with 39 doubles and 17 home runs last year, his offensive numbers have decreased from his Oakland days. Chapman had his best WAR year since 2019 with that plus the defence for 4.4 bWAR.
I wouldn’t want to offer him a really long-term contract because he will turn 31 in April. According to MLB Trade Rumours, he might sign a $150 million, six-year contract. That seems excessive for a guy with this kind of potential who is between the ages of 31 and 36. Maybe for a total of $120-$130 million, I’d be more inclined to offer four years with a vesting option for a fifth year.
One more factor, in my opinion, is significant in this situation. In 2024, the Cubs’ infield might have three Gold Glove winners if they sign Chapman. They should have a strong defensive first baseman if they plan to achieve that. Rhys Hoskins would appear to be eliminated by that. A Chapman acquisition ought to be accompanied by the addition of Cody Bellinger; the latter can play first base and centre field, respectively.
Thus, in light of the MLBTR prediction, would you sign Chapman? or the arrangement I suggested?There is no doubt that Nick Madrigal cannot continue to be the Cubs’ starting third baseman in 2024.
