If the Pirates’ winter signings have revealed just one thing, it’s that, if they can repeat their 2022 performance, they should be in a really good position.
Marco Gonzales pitched 183 innings with a 4.13 ERA in 2022, but he was ill and had trouble for most of 2023. That kind of person is definitely needed in the rotation. Despite trying to play despite a finger and forearm injury, Rowdy Tellez was unable to replicate his 35-home run 2022 season.
Furthermore, it makes the difference for Martín Pérez between having an All-Star season and being removed from the rotation.
Pérez and the Pirates have worked out a one-year, $8 million deal for 2024, subject to a medical. This will extend the rotation, which is in dire need of innings in terms of both quality and quantity. For the Rangers in 2022, he delivered both, going 12-8 with a 2.89 ERA in 32 starts and 196 1/3 innings, good for his first selection to the All-Star team. For the majority of his career, he had been a dependable inning eater, but that was the first time since 2016 that his ERA+ above 100. One could legitimately ask if this year was an anomaly.
When Pérez accepted his qualifying offer for the next season, the Rangers were able to keep him, but the outcomes significantly worsened. For the last two months of the season, he was removed from the rotation after his ERA and FIP skyrocketed to 4.45 and 4.99, respectively. The Pirates need a starter, not a reliever, but that bullpen experiment went really well, so it could be a backup plan in case Pérez doesn’t return his 2022 form.
The cutter’s effectiveness is the primary difference between those two seasons.
Early in his career, Pérez relied primarily on his two fastballs and a changeup, using his curveball and slider about 10% of the time each. That all changed in 2019 when a new cutter took the place of those breaking pitches. When it performs well, it is among the best cutters available. When things go bad, it takes a lot of hits and doesn’t miss many bats. Fascinatingly, it’s a true Jekyll and Hyde story year after year.
