Regarding trading, nobody is more well-known than Juan Soto. A few weeks ago, MLBTR’s list of the Top 25 offseason trade candidates included the superstar outfielder at the top.
He is a free agent after one season with the Padres, who are supposedly looking to reduce cost. For his final season of arbitration, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz forecasts Soto will earn a record $33MM in compensation, making him the highest-paid player on the team.
A.J. Preller, president of baseball operations, has stated that signing Soto to an extension would be the organization’s preferred course of action. That seems improbable beyond belief. In the summer of 2022, Soto turned down a $440MM offer from the Nationals. Only now that he is a year and a half closer to free agency should the price tag increase. Nobody should hope to keep Soto off the open market, including San Diego.
In his post from yesterday, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic stated that the Friars’ payroll and personnel situation suggest a trade. Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove are the only two contenders left for a rotation place for San Diego. On the position player side, they might benefit from a little more nuance. A Soto trade would generate the most short-term payroll room of any move.
It’s difficult to see the Padres trading him in the NL West. San Diego isn’t starting again. While there might be a financial incentive for a transaction, it would also allow for reinvestment. It is unlikely that the Friars will trade Soto to the Giants, Dodgers, or Diamondbacks. A star won’t be acquired by the Rockies for the 2019 season.
Blue Jays: General Manager Ross Atkins has shown a wish to bring in a number of bats. They are in the running for Shohei Ohtani, but should the two-way star sign with another team, they may look to the trade market. To move Soto to left field, the Jays might move Daulton Varsho to center field. They are around $24 million short of the base luxury tax threshold for the following year. They were prepared to enter CBT territory this past season, which would have required them to acquire Soto.
Cubs: Ohtani is also a target for the Cubs. They would no longer be in the running for Soto if they signed the current AL MVP. It makes sense to give Soto a swing to alternate between Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ in the corner outfield and DH roles if they are unable to acquire Ohtani. Right now, Chicago is a squad that just misses out on the playoffs. $50MM is anticipated to be under the tax threshold. They are almost $25 million below their franchise-high amount from 2019, but they are still within $7 million of this year’s Opening Day salary.
Mariners: Compared to some of the other teams in this category, Seattle doesn’t appear to be as invested on Ohtani. Given that they intend to spend about $4MM less than this year’s season-opening expenditure level, perhaps that indicates they are not interested in any player on a huge deal. They would still be around $25 million shy of their Opening Day payroll record as a team, and Soto’s one season would not have the long-term drawbacks Seattle has avoided in free agency. To get over the top, the Mariners need offense, and they could enhance at either corner outfield position, where Dominic Canzone and Jarred Kelenic appear to be the best internal alternatives.
Rangers: Leody Taveras, Adolis García, and Evan Carter make up a formidable starting outfield for the reigning World Series champions. Mitch Garver, the starting deep hitter, became a free agent, freeing up a position in the lineup. With just 17 games of experience in the upper minors, Wyatt Langford, the #4 overall pick from the previous year, is perhaps too young to be optimistic. It makes perfect sense to add Soto to an already excellent offense for a season as they aim for a repeat. They already anticipate making more money than they did on Opening Day of this year, but they plan to increase expenditures after a title. Texas projects to be about $18 million below the lowest luxury tax threshold, meaning they might add Soto without incurring very high fines.
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