CONGRATULATION :Meet The New Guy………

Introducing Lucas Giolito, the New Guy:

That would be The Italian Stallion, Lucas Frost Giolito! The Slinger from Stracciatella! The Calabrian Chile Chief! — and he somehow ends up joining the Red Sox after playing for the Cleveland Guardians, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, and the Chicago White Sox in 2023.

Prior to turning into the American League’s lost and wandering soul, he was a Hollywood native with a stellar background. Not Hollywood as in “the greater LA area,” but rather the fact that his father was an Olympic fencer (which has nothing to do with show business, but certainly is some kind of entertainment), his uncle co-created Twin Peaks, and both his mother and maternal grandfather were successful character actors (his grandfather played Susan Ross’s dad on Seinfeld!).

Giolito played baseball with Max Fried and Jack Flaherty at the ultra-prestigious prep powerhouse Harvard-Westlake High School. After declining a chance to throw at UCLA, he was selected by the Washington Nationals in the first round of the 2012 MLB draft.

The Red Sox just signed him to a free agent deal that could last anywhere between one and three years. He’ll be paid $18 million in 2024, after which he can opt-out and become a free agent again next offseason. If he declines to opt out, he’ll make another $19 million in 2025, before another mutual option kicks in for 2026. So, in other words, if Giolito is good, the Sox may only have him for one season; if he stinks, they could be stuck with him for two-to-three.

What an intriguing and sophisticated question! He was once a first-round pick and a highly sought-after prospect, as you just read. After a few years of struggling to find his groove, he emerged as one of the American League’s top pitchers and was nominated for Cy Young three times in a row, from 2019 to 2021.

Is he better now, though? Here’s what our very own Jacob Roy had to say about Giolito in our Smash or Pass series analysis:

Typically, if you’re playing for three teams in one season, you aren’t very good. For Giolito, that isn’t exactly the case. The Angels brought in Giolio as a last-ditch effort to get Ohtani to the playoffs before he left for greener pastures. After about a month, they realized that was a terrible idea and went back to their old ways, DFAing Giolito as they scrambled to get under the luxury tax threshold. He was promptly picked up by the Guardians, who were also making a final push to the playoffs (and also came up short).

Both the Angels and Guardians thought Giolito was good enough to help their playoff chances so he must be good, right? Well, he actually hurt far more than he helped. Across 63 innings with Los Angeles and Cleveland, his ERA was nearly seven.

Despite the poor results, there’s plenty of reason to believe Giolito can be a productive pitcher. From 2019 to 2021, he received Cy Young votes, finishing as high as sixth. And while his 2023 stat line looks suspect, he had a solid first half with Chicago. While every inning counts the same, pitching for three teams in six weeks has to be difficult, so take those results with a grain of salt.At his peak, Giolito was an inning-eating, strikeout machine. In each of his three seasons from 2019-2021, he threw at least 170 innings with strikeout rates above 28%. 2022 was a down year, but the underlying stuff was still there in the first half with Chicago. His changeup returned a 31.2% CSW (called-strikes plus whiff rate). His slider, despite the average chase rate, had a strong whiff rate. Down the stretch, his command was shoddy and it was punished, but the pitch quality itself was still there.

So, in other words: he’s maybe still good? The fact that he gave up 20 home runs in just 63.1 innings with the Angels and Guardians last year is scary as hell. But, in addition to the difficulties that naturally come with landing on three different teams in a matter of weeks, we should also note that Giolito and his long-time wife (and high school sweetheart) got divorced in the middle of last season. It’s probably safe to assume that, from both a professional and personal standpoint, 2023 was the toughest, strangest year of Giolito’s life.

Let’s end things on a positive note: for the first three months of the season last year, before he got shuffled around and fell apart on the mound, Giolito maintained a strong 3.53 ERA for the White Sox. In the five seasons since the Sox last won a championship in 2018, they’ve have a starting pitcher produce an ERA that low just once (Michael Wacha in 2022).