JUST IN: An Appropriate Reminder of the Cubs’ Hesitancy to Enter Very Long-Term Agreements

Patrick Mooney compiles the quotations that best summarise the Chicago Cubs’ calendar year every December. The story of how things came to be where they are this year includes both expected and unexpected highs and lows.

It’s strange, because the year began with a comment from Tom Ricketts that pretty well predicted where we would end up in December. mentioning extremely long-term agreements, such as the 11-year contracts that Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts signed earlier that offseason

As far as we can determine, Jed Hoyer has supported Ricketts whenever he’s made similar statements in the past. They just don’t want to get into extremely long-term agreements because they think that obtaining the player in the near future—more essential than the reduced AAV—justifies the suffering on the rear end. Perhaps there’s a lingering resentment over the Jason Heyward situation, or perhaps there’s just an organisational policy on long-term financial planning.

Of course, it’s not that difficult to argue against the philosophy—we just need to look at the Shohei Ohtani trade from this offseason. Despite the Dodgers’ 20-year commitment to pay, they will actually pay out significantly less in real, anticipated financial value than Ohtani’s deal ostensibly shows due to the time value of money. Furthermore, you may simply modify the overall guarantee if you know going into an eight-year contract that the years five, six, seven, and eight aren’t likely to offer significant value. Theoretically, if money is left over in the end, it has nothing to do with playing time (if you cut bait at the appropriate time) or budgets (if you prepare ahead).

However, given the nature of the actual world, I believe that neither the realities of budgeting (nor the luxury tax) nor the later years of those bargains concerning playing time are usually so clear-cut that they can’t possibly cause you any harm. The organisation will benefit more in the long run and practically speaking from shorter arrangements. That section covers both the ageing curve and flexibility. Yes, I understand.