In 2023, the Pittsburgh Pirates acquired Andre Jackson, a right-handed pitcher, from the Los Angeles Dodgers. After experiencing some ups and downs with the Bucs, Jackson concluded the season with 43.2 innings pitched, a 4.33 ERA, a 4.61 FIP, and a 1.12 WHIP. However, Jackson has considerable promise and might be a valuable addition to the Pirates’ bullpen in 2024.
I can’t emphasize enough how important it is for the Pirates to only allow Jackson to face the order once. For the Pirates, Jackson was not a poor pitcher. Simply put, he wasn’t consistently placed in a favorable situation to succeed. Jackson faced the order just once, yet he already had a 1.71 ERA, a.156/.230/.233 triple-slash and a.233 wOBA, an 8% walk rate, and a 31% strikeout rate. Before the universal DH was put into place, a pitcher would seem quite excellent with that kind of triple-slash and wOBA.
But Jackson had a 7.98 ERA the second time through the order, and hitters hammered him for a.263/.373/.596 line and a.407 wOBA. For reference, Roger Maris hit.269/.372/.620 in 1961, the year he set the American League home run record. Both his walk and strikeout rates were 13.4%. His home run rate skyrocketed to 3.1 per nine. His xFIP was 6.67 even after adjusting for a league average HR/FB percentage of 21.7%, which is undoubtedly not helping.
At least 6% of the time last year, he threw four pitches. With a +5 run value, his fastball limited opponents to a.222 BA and.308 wOBA. But his curveball and slider were virtually unhittable. Against Jackson’s slider, batters only hit.148 with a.296 slugging percentage and.187 wOBA. His least effective pitch, the curveball, was only utilized 6.5% of the time, yet he still struck out seven of the eighteen batters he faced and gave up only one hit. The batters matched his change-up for a.273 average,.566 slugging percentage, and.369 wOBA, making it by far his worst pitch. However, Jackson might be able to get away with his if he can refine his change-up or reduce its usage.
He wouldn’t have to depend as much on the fourth offering if he worked out of the bullpen. Jackson’s dynamic spin rate makes his curveball, slider, and fastball as effective as they are. With an active spin rate of 99% and an RPM of 2268, Jackson’s fastball had an above-average ride through the zone. Although his slider’s active spin rate was only 28%, a low active spin rate is what you want to see in this situation. Jackson had the 74th greatest vertical movement out of the 252 pitchers who threw a curveball at least 50 times this year. His curveball featured a 52.7-inch vertical drop.
To be honest, I believe Jackson has the ability to manage high-leverage. Though his contributions would undoubtedly play in a high-leverage job, he would need to be eased into it. Just take a look at the contrasts that Baseball Savant draws between Jackson’s offerings’ movement and velocity. Three of the five are from the Dodgers’ 2023 season: Justin Verlander, Brandon Woodruff, and Ryan Pepoit, who is among their greatest prospects heading into 2023.
Jackson has good stuff, and he demonstrated it when he had the chance. However, the Pirates overextended him in the previous season, primarily due to their haphazard approach to the starting lineup in the second half. He cannot be the opening day pitcher in 2024, as Marty stated. Jackson will, however, excel if placed in the bullpen and limited to pitching 1-2 innings at a period.
